The week of February 18-23 marked a turning point for agentic commerce. Infrastructure is no longer theoretical. Payment networks (Visa, Mastercard, DBS) launched pilots across Asia Pacific. Adobe and Shopify publicly staked claims to transaction control, rejecting agent bypass scenarios. Google forged partnerships with Sea Ltd and Loblaw, embedding AI shopping into major retailers. The first real conversion benchmark arrived: Fresha reported 25% of bookings now flow through Google Gemini and AI agents, with 9x marketplace ROI. Consumer behavior crossed the mainstream threshold, with 70%+ of shoppers now using AI to find deals. Wall Street responded: Morgan Stanley named Amazon its top pick based on GenAI momentum, projecting 50% upside from AI shopping potential. Retailers moved from experimentation to production deployment (Walmart integrating Gemini, Williams-Sonoma testing ChatGPT ads, Loblaw launching Canada’s first ChatGPT shopping app). The central question shifted from whether AI shopping will happen to who controls the transaction layer when it does. Platforms are racing to set standards. Retailers are scrambling to claim distribution. The infrastructure layer is being built now.
Top 3 Stories We’re Tracking
Fresha Reports 25% of Bookings Driven by Google Gemini and AI Agents
Fresha, a self-care booking platform, disclosed that one in four bookings now originates through Google Gemini and AI agents, delivering 9x marketplace ROI. This is the first public benchmark showing meaningful AI agent conversion rates at scale. The data validates that agentic commerce is driving real transaction volume today, not in some distant future. It provides retailers and investors with a concrete proof point that AI shopping has crossed from experimental to operational.
Shopify and Adobe Stake Claims to Transaction Control
Shopify publicly declared that AI agents will not bypass its checkout systems, while Adobe committed its commerce platform to agentic standards. These moves signal platforms asserting control over the transaction layer as AI shopping scales. The decisions protect revenue streams from transaction fees and maintain platform control over customer relationships and conversion data. These are defensive plays to remain relevant infrastructure as AI threatens to disintermediate traditional e-commerce platforms.
Payment Networks Build Infrastructure for AI Agent Transactions
DBS Bank and Visa launched agentic commerce pilots across Asia Pacific, while Mastercard expanded to India and PayPal targeted travel bookings. Payment networks are building transaction rails designed for AI agents to complete purchases autonomously, not just human-initiated transactions. ACI Worldwide is constructing payment infrastructure specifically for agentic commerce. The financial plumbing for AI shopping is being installed now, signaling that institutions expect agent-driven purchases to become a major transaction category.
Trends to Watch
- Platforms (Google, Shopify, Adobe) are racing to control transaction infrastructure before competitors lock them out, asserting ownership over checkout and payment flows.
- First real conversion benchmarks validate category viability: Fresha’s 25% AI-driven bookings with 9x ROI proves agentic commerce drives measurable transaction volume today.
- Consumer behavior crossed mainstream threshold with 70%+ using AI to find deals, creating urgency for retailers to invest in AI commerce capabilities.
- Payment networks and logistics firms are building agentic-ready infrastructure now, positioning themselves as essential plumbing for AI-driven transactions.
- Wall Street is repricing major tech stocks based on AI commerce potential, with Morgan Stanley projecting 50% upside for Amazon from GenAI momentum.